Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.149866 2.277522 2.412094 2.565092 2.734919 2.918461 3.132932
2025-05-18 1.951447 2.125555 2.318004 2.548481 2.819702 3.132244 3.524965
2025-05-25 1.818978 2.017778 2.244590 2.526162 2.871704 3.289479 3.845301
2025-06-01 1.718017 1.932432 2.183094 2.503223 2.909679 3.421283 4.136740
2025-06-08 1.647961 1.875911 2.148097 2.504563 2.971352 3.581412 4.476791
2025-06-15 1.599853 1.841141 2.134932 2.528884 3.060288 3.781041 4.892469
2025-06-22 1.531387 1.776354 2.078907 2.491774 3.061315 3.856294 5.131597
2025-06-29 1.468899 1.715403 2.023597 2.450598 3.051384 3.911887 5.343620
2025-07-06 1.407830 1.653183 1.963037 2.397792 3.019737 3.930443 5.495042
2025-07-13 1.385071 1.638873 1.963889 2.428051 3.107935 4.135856 5.988259
2025-07-20 1.367473 1.630084 1.971000 2.466495 3.209802 4.371421 6.574706
2025-07-27 1.348980 1.619002 1.973976 2.498436 3.303222 4.602016 7.195957
2025-08-03 1.312660 1.583244 1.942254 2.479166 3.317215 4.703464 7.587699
2025-08-10 1.280132 1.551408 1.914567 2.464171 3.336593 4.815943 8.027145
2025-08-17 1.247848 1.518678 1.884122 2.443081 3.343955 4.906770 8.437983
2025-08-24 1.217443 1.487447 1.854453 2.421379 3.348274 4.991668 8.854400
2025-08-31 1.196006 1.467815 1.840415 2.422646 3.390762 5.152649 9.500831
2025-09-07 1.182353 1.458446 1.840578 2.445657 3.471703 5.397794 10.445885
2025-09-14 1.152510 1.425436 1.805112 2.410544 3.448080 5.429011 10.800351
2025-09-21 1.123044 1.392185 1.768241 2.371562 3.415035 5.437276 11.091343
2025-09-28 1.091808 1.355687 1.725549 2.321536 3.359199 5.392202 11.207369
2025-10-05 1.083895 1.352105 1.731385 2.350207 3.448381 5.669293 12.472728
2025-10-12 1.078389 1.351704 1.741788 2.386615 3.554432 5.999285 14.102058